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- Homoscedasticity In Machine Learning: Detection, Effects & How to Treat
Homoscedasticity In Machine Learning: Detection, Effects & How to Treat
Updated on 23 September, 2022
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Table of Contents
By the end of this tutorial, you will have knowledge of the following:
- What is Homoscedasticity & Heteroscedasticity?
- How to know if Heteroscedasticity is present.
- Effects of Heteroscedasticity in Machine Learning.
- Treating Heteroscedasticity
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What Is Homoscedasticity & Heteroscedasticity?
Homoscedasticity means to be of “The same Variance”. In Linear Regression, one of the main assumptions is that there is a Homoscedasticity present in the errors or the residual terms (Y_Pred – Y_actual).
In other words, Linear Regression assumes that for all the instances, the error terms will be the same and of very little variance.
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Let’s understand it with the help of an example. Consider we have two variables – Carpet area of the house and price of the house. As the carpet area increases, the prices also increase.
So we fit a linear regression model and see that the errors are of the same variance throughout. The graph in the below image has Carpet Area in the X-axis and Price in the Y-axis.
As you can see, the predictions are almost along the linear regression line and with similar variance throughout.
Also, if we plot these residuals on the X-axis, we’d see it along in a straight line parallel to the X-axis. This is a clear sign of Homoscedasticity
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When this condition is violated, it means there is Heteroscedasticity in the model. Considering the same example as above, let’s say that for houses with lesser carpet area the errors or residuals or very small. And as the carpet area increases, the variance in the predictions increase which results in increasing value of error or residual terms. When we plot the values again we see the typical Cone curve which strongly indicates the presence of Heteroscedsticity in the model.
Specifically speaking, Heteroscedasticity is a systematic increase or decrease in the variance of residuals over the range of independent variables. This is an issue because Homoscedasticity is an assumption of linear regression and all errors should be of the same variance. Learn more about linear Regression
How To Know If Heteroscedasticity is Present?
In the simplest terms, the easiest way to know if Heteroscedasticity is present is by plotting the graph of residuals. If you see any pattern present then there is Heteroscedasticity. Typically the values increase as the fitted value increase, thereby making a cone-shaped curve.
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Usual Reasons For Heteroscedasticity
- When there is a large variance in a variable. In other words, when the smallest and the largest values in a variable are too extreme. These can also be outliers.
- When you are fitting the wrong model. If you fit a linear regression model to a data which is non-linear, it will lead to Heteroscedasticity.
- When the scale of values in a variable is not the same.
- When a wrong transformation on data is used for regression.
- When there is left/right skewness present in the data.
Pure Vs Impure Heteroscedasticity
Now with the above reasons, the Heteroscedasticity can either be Pure or Impure. When we fit the right model (linear or non-linear) and if yet there is a visible pattern in the residuals then it is called Pure Heteroscedasticity.
However, if we fit the wrong model and then observe a pattern in the residuals then it is a case of Impure Heteroscedasticity. Depending on the type of Heteroscedasticity the measures need to be taken to overcome it. It also depends on the domain you’re working in and varies from domain to domain.
Effects Of Heteroscedasticity In Machine Learning
As we discussed earlier, the linear regression model makes an assumption about Homoscedasticity being present in the data. If that assumption is broken then we won’t be able to trust the results we get.
If Heteroscedasticity is present then the instances with high variance will have a larger impact on the prediction which we don’t want.
- Presence of Heteroscedasticity makes the coefficients less precise and hence the correct coefficients are further away from the population value.
- Heteroscedasticity is also likely to produce p-values smaller than the actual values. This is due to the fact that the variance of coefficient estimates has increased but the standard OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) model did not detect it. Therefore the OLS model calculates p-values using an underestimated variance. This can lead us to incorrectly make a conclusion that the regression coefficients are significant when they are actually not significant.
- The standard errors produced will also be biased. Standard errors are crucial in calculating significant tests and confidence intervals. If the Standard errors are biased, it will mean that the tests are incorrect and the regression coefficient estimates will be incorrect.
How To Treat Heteroscedasticity?
If you detect the presence of Heteroscedasticity, then there are multiple ways to tackle it. First, let’s consider an example where we have 2 variables: Population of City and Number of Infections of COVID-19.
Now in this example, there will be a huge difference in the number of infections in large metro cities vs small tier-3 cities. The variable Number of Infections will be independent and Population of City will be a dependent variable.
Consider that fit a regression model to this data and observe Heteroscedasticity similar to the image above. So now we know that there is Heteroscedasticity present in the model and it needs to be fixed.
Now the first step would be to identify the source of Heteroscedasticity. In our case, it is the variable with a large variance.
There can be multiple ways to deal with Heteroscedasticity, but we’ll look at three such methods.
Manipulating The Variables
We can make some modifications to the variables/features we have to reduce the impact of this large variance on the model predictions. One way to do this by modifying the features to rates and percentages rather than actual values.
This would make the features convey a bit different information but it is worth trying. It will also depend on the problem and data if this type of approach can be implemented or not.
This method involves the least modification with features and often help solve the problem and even make the model’s performance better in some cases.
So in our case, we can change the feature “Number of Infections” to “Rate of infections”. This will help reduce the variance as quite obviously the number of infections in cities with a large population will be large.
Weighted Regression
Weighted regression is a modification of normal regression where the data points are assigned certain weights according to their variance. The ones with large variance are given small weights and the ones with less variance are given larger weights.
So when these weights are squared, the square of small weights underestimates the effect of high variance.
When correct weights are used, Heteroscedasticity is replaced by Homoscedasticity. But how to find correct weights? One quick way is to use the inverse of that variable as the weight.
So in our case, the weight will be Inverse of City Population.
Transformations
Transforming the data is the last resort as by doing that you lose the interpretability of the feature.
What that means is you no longer can easily explain what the feature is showing.
One way could be to use Box-Cox transformations and log transformations.
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Before You Go
There can be many reasons for Heteroscedasticity in your data. It also highly varies from one domain to another.
So it is essential to have the knowledge of that as well before you start with the above processes to remove Heteroscedasticity.
In this blog, we discussed Homoscedasticity and Heteroscedasticity and how it can be used to implement several machine learning algorithms.
If you’re interested to learn more about machine learning, check out IIIT-B & upGrad’s Executive PG Programme in Machine Learning & AI which is designed for working professionals and offers 450+ hours of rigorous training, 30+ case studies & assignments, IIIT-B Alumni status, 5+ practical hands-on capstone projects & job assistance with top firms.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the white test for heteroscedasticity?
If you need your independent variable to have an interactive, non-linear effect on the variance, then the use of a white test is preferred to check for heteroscedasticity. However, the white test, being an asymptotic test, is preferred in the case of large samples only. The heteroscedasticity process can be a function of one or more of your independent variables using the White test. It's comparable to the Breusch-Pagan test, the only difference being that the White test allows for a nonlinear and interactive influence of the independent variable on the error variance.
2. What exactly is the null hypothesis for heteroscedasticity?
The existence of an outlier in the data causes heteroscedasticity. Heteroscedasticity can also be produced when variables are omitted from the model. Heteroscedasticity implies just two hypotheses: the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis. When applying the White test, Breusch-Pagan, or Cook-Weisberg tests to check for heteroscedasticity, the null hypothesis is true if the variances of the errors are equal. An alternate hypothesis occurs when the variances of the errors are not identical.
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A neural network works on a system of probability by being able to make statements, decisions, or predictions based on data fed to it. Moreover, a feedback loop enables further “learning” by sensing; it also modifies the learning process based on whether its decisions are right or wrong.
An artificial neural network is a computer system with node networks inspired from the neurons in the animal brain. Such networks can be taught to recognise and classify patterns through witnessing examples rather than telling the algorithm how exactly to recognise and classify patterns. Machine Learning derived applications of neural networks can read pieces of text and recognise the nature of the text – whether it is a complaint or congratulatory note. They can also listen to a piece of music, decide whether it is likely to make someone happy or sad, and find other pieces of similar music. What’s more, they can even compose music expressing the same mood or theme.
In the near future, with the help of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, it should be possible for a person to communicate and interact with electronic devices and digital information thanks to another emerging field of AI called Natural Language Processing (NLP). NLP has become a source of cutting-edge innovation in the past few years, and one which is heavily reliant on Machine Learning.
NLP applications attempt to understand human communication, both written as well as spoken, and communicate using various languages. In this context, Machine Learning helps machines understand the nuances in human language and respond in a way that a particular audience is likely to comprehend.
So, who is actually using it?
Most industries working with large amounts of data have recognised the value of Machine Learning. Large companies glean vital real-time actionable insights from stored data and are hence able to increase efficiency or gain an advantage over their competitors.
Financial services
Banks and other businesses use Machine Learning to identify important insights in data generated and thereby prevent frauds. These insights can identify investment opportunities or help investors know when to trade. Data mining can also identify clients with high-risk profiles or use cyber surveillance to warn customers about fraud and thereby minimise identity theft.
Marketing and sales
E-commerce websites use Machine Learning technology to analyse buying history based on previous purchases, to recommend items that you may like and promote other items. The retail industry is enlisting the ability of websites to capture data, analyse it, and use it to personalise a shopping experience or implement marketing campaigns.
Summing up, Artificial Intelligence and, in particular, Machine Learning, certainly has a lot to offer today. With its promise of automating mundane tasks as well as offering creative insights, industries in every sector from banking to healthcare and manufacturing are reaping the benefits.
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Eventually, scientists hope to develop human-like Artificial Intelligence that is capable of increasing the speed of various automated functions, especially with the advent of chatbots in the internet realm. Much of the exciting progress that we have seen in recent years is due to progressive changes in Artificial Intelligence, which have been brought about by Machine Learning. This is clearly why Machine Learning is poised to become the next big thing in the data sciences sphere.
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The Difference between Data Science, Machine Learning and Big Data!
Many professionals and ‘Data’ enthusiasts often ask, “What’s the difference between Data Science, Machine Learning and Big Data?” This is a question frequently asked nowadays.
Here’s what differentiates Data Science, Machine Learning and Big Data from each other:
Data Science
Data Science follows an interdisciplinary approach. It lies at the intersection of Maths, Statistics, Artificial Intelligence, Software Engineering and Design Thinking. Data Science deals with data collection, cleaning, analysis, visualisation, model creation, model validation, prediction, designing experiments, hypothesis testing and much more. The aim of all these steps is just to derive insights from data.
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Digitisation is progressing at an exponential rate. Internet accessibility is improving at breakneck speed. More and more people are getting absorbed into the digital ecosystem. All these activities are generating a humongous amount of data. Companies are currently sitting on a data landmine. But data, by itself, is not of much use. This is where Data Science comes into the picture. It helps in mining this data and deriving insights from it; for taking meaningful action. Various Data Science tools can help us in the process of insight generation. If you are a beginner and interested to learn more about data science, check out our data scientist courses from top universities.
Frameworks exist to help derive insights from data. A framework is nothing but a supportive structure. It’s a lifecycle used to structure the development of Data Science projects. A lifecycle outlines the steps — from start to finish — that projects usually follow. In other words, it breaks down the complex challenges into simple steps.
This ensures that any significant phase, which leads to the generation of actionable insights from data, is not missed out.
One such framework is the ‘Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining’, abbreviated as the CRISP-DM framework. The other is the ‘Team Data Science Process’ (TDSP) from Microsoft.
Let’s understand this with the help of an example. A bank named ‘X’, which has been in business for the past ten years. It receives a loan application from one of its customers. Now, it wants to predict whether this customer will default in repaying the loan. How can the bank go about achieving this task?
Like every other bank, X must have captured data regarding various aspects of their customers, such as demographic data, customer-related data, etc. In the past ten years, many customers would have succeeded in repaying the loan, but some customers would have defaulted. How can this bank leverage this data to improve its profitability? To put it simply, how can it avoid providing loans to a customer who is very likely to default? How can they ensure not losing out on good customers who are more likely to repay their debts? Data Science can help us resolve this challenge.
Raw Data —> Data Science —-> Actionable Insights
Let’s understand how various branches of Data Science will help the bank overcome its challenge. Statistics will assist in the designing of experiments, finding a correlation between variables, hypothesis testing, exploratory data analysis, etc. In this case, the loan purpose or educational qualifications of the customer could influence their loan default. After performing data cleaning and exploratory study, the data becomes ready for modeling.
Statistics and artificial intelligence provide algorithms for model creation. Model creation is where machine learning comes into the picture. Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that is utilised by data science to achieve its objectives. Before proceeding with the banking example, let’s understand what machine learning is.
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Machine Learning
“Machine learning is a form of artificial intelligence. It gives machines the ability to learn, without being explicitly programmed.”
How can machines learn without being explicitly programmed, you might ask? Aren’t computers just devices made to follow instructions? Not anymore.
Machine learning consists of a suite of intelligent algorithms, enabling machines to learn without being explicitly programmed for it. Machine learning helps you learn the objective function — which maps the inputs to the target variable, or independent variables to the dependent variables.
In our banking example, the objective function determines the various demographics, customer and behavioural variables which influences the probability of a loan default. Independent attributes or inputs are the demographic, customer and behavioural variables of a customer. The dependent variable is either ‘to default’ or not. The objective function is an equation which maps these inputs to outputs. It’s a function which tells us which independent variables influence the dependent variable, i.e. the tendency to default. This process of deriving an objective function, which maps inputs to outputs is known as modelling.
Initially, this objective function will not be able to predict precisely whether a customer will default or not. As the model encounters new instances, it learns and evolves. It improves as more and more examples become available. Ultimately, this model reaches a stage where it will be able to tell with a certain degree of precision.
hings like, which customer is going to default, and whom the bank can rely on to improve its profitability.
Machine learning aims to achieve ‘generalisability’. This means, the objective function — which maps the inputs to the output — should apply to the data, which hasn’t encountered it, yet. In the banking example, our model learns patterns from the data provided to it. The model determines which variables will influence the tendency to default. If a new customer applies for a loan, at this point, his/her variables are not yet seen by this model. The model should be relevant to this customer as well. It should predict reliably whether this customer will default or not.
If this model is unable to do this, then it will not able to generalise the unseen data. It is an iterative process. We need to create many models to see which work, and which don’t.
Data science and analysis utilise machine learning for this kind of model creation and validation. It is important to note that all the algorithms for this model creation do not come from machine learning. They can enter from various other fields. The model needs to be kept relevant at all times. If the conditions change, then the model — which we created earlier — may become irrelevant.
The model needs to be checked for its predictability at different times and needs to be modified if its predictability reduces. For the banking employee to take an instant decision the moment a customer applies for a loan, the model needs to be integrated with the bank’s IT systems. The bank’s servers should host the model. As a customer applies for a loan, his variables must be captured from a website and utilised by the model running on the server.
Then, this model should convey the decision — whether the credit can be granted or not — to the bank employee, instantly. This process comes under the domain of information technology, which is also utilised by data science.
In the end, it is all about communicating the results from the analysis. Here, the presentation and storytelling skills are required to demonstrate the effects from the study efficiently. Design-thinking helps in visualising the results, and effectively tell the story from the analysis.
Big Data
The final piece of our puzzle is ‘Big Data’. How is it different from data science and machine learning?
According to IBM, we create 2.5 Quintillion (2.5 × 1018) bytes of data every day! The amount of data which companies gather is so vast that it creates a large set of challenges regarding data acquisition, storage, analysis and visualisation. The problem is not entirely regarding the quantity of data that is available, but also its variety, veracity and velocity. All these challenges necessitated a new set of methods and techniques to deal with the same.
Big data involves the four ‘V’s — Volume, Variety, Veracity, and Velocity — which differentiates it from conventional data.
Volume:
The amount of data involved here is so humongous, that it requires specialised infrastructure to acquire, store and analyse it. Distributed and parallel computing methods are employed to handle this volume of data.
Variety:
Data comes in various formats; structured or unstructured, etc. Structured means neatly arranged rows and columns. Unstructured means that it comes in the form of paragraphs, videos and images, etc. This kind of data also consists of a lot of information. Unstructured data requires different database systems than traditional RDBMS. Cassandra is one such database to manage unstructured data.
Veracity:
The presence of huge volumes of data will not lead to actionable insights. It needs to be correct for it to be meaningful. Extreme care needs to be taken to make sure that the data captured is accurate, and that the sanctity is maintained, as it increases in volume and variety.
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Velocity:
It refers to the speed at which the data is generated. 90% of data in today’s world was created in the last two years alone. However, this velocity of information generated is bringing its own set of challenges. For some businesses, real-time analysis is crucial. Any delay will reduce the value of the data and its analysis for business. Spark is one such platform which helps analyse streaming data.
As time progresses, new ‘V’s get added to the definition of big data. But — volume, variety, veracity, and velocity — are the four essential constituents which differentiate data from big data. The algorithms which deal with big data, including machine learning algorithms, are optimised to leverage a different hardware infrastructure, that is utilised to handle big data.
To summarise, Executive PG Programme in Data Science is an interdisciplinary field with an aim to derive actionable insights from data. Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence which is utilised by data science to teach the machines the ability to learn, without being explicitly
programmed. Volume, variety, veracity, and velocity are the four important constituents which differentiate big data from conventional data.
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Natural Language Generation: Top Things You Need to Know
From a linguistic point of view, language was created for the survival of human beings. The effective communication helped a primitive man to hunt, gather and survive in groups. This means a language is necessary to carry out all activities needed for not only survival but also a meaningful existence of human beings. As humans evolved so did their literary skills. From pictorial scripts to well developed universal ones, we have made an impressive progress. In fact, such remarkable progress that a machine developed by humans now can read data, write text and not in a machine, binary language but a real, conversational language. Natural Language Generation has made this possible.
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What is Natural Language Generation?
Natural language is an offshoot of Artificial Intelligence. It is a tool to automatically analyse data, interpret it, identify the important information and narrow it down to a simple text, to make decision making in business easier, faster and of course, cheaper. It crunches numbers and drafts a narrative for you.
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What are the different variations of Natural Language Generation?
Basic Natural Language Generation:
The basic form of NLG converts data into text through Excel-like functions. For example, a mail merge that restates numbers into a language.
Templated Natural Language Generation:
In this type of NGL tool, a user takes the call on designing content templates and interpreting the output. Templated systems are restricted in their capability to scan multiple data sources, perform advanced analytics.
Advanced Natural Language Generation:
It is the ‘smartest’ way of analysing data. It processes the data right from the beginning and separates it based on its significance for a particular audience, and then writes the narrative with relevant information in a conversational tone. For example, if a data analyst wants to know how a particular product is doing in a market, an advanced NLG tool would write a report by segregating the data of only the required product.
Do we really need natural language generation?
A number of devices are connected to the internet creating a huge Internet of Things. All these devices are creating data at a lightning speed leading to Big Data generation. It is almost humanly impossible to analyse, interpret and draw rational interference from this enormous data. Along with data analysis and accurate interpretation the need for the optimum use of resources, cost cutting and time management are the essentials for a modern business to survive, grow and flourish. Natural Language Generation helps up to effectively achieve all these goals in one go.
Additionally, when a machine can do these routine tasks, and accurately. So, valuable human resources can indulge themselves in the activities that require innovation, creativity and problem-solving.
Will Natural Language Generation kill jobs?
First of all, not all kinds of narratives can be written by Natural Language Generation tools. It is only for creating a text based on data. Creative writing, engaging content is developed not only by analytical skills but with the help of major emotional involvement. The passion of an individual, their skills, their ability to cater complex terms in simpler formats can’t be replaced. Additionally, to rationalise the text created by Natural Language Generation tools, human intervention is critical.
Natural Language Generation only augments the job and enriches the life of employees by freeing them from menial jobs. Alain Kaeser, founder of Yseop has rightly acknowledged that-
“The next industrial revolution will be the artificial intelligence revolution and the automation of knowledge work and repetitive tasks to enhance human capacity”.
Why should you get a hang of Natural Language Generation?
A research commissioned by Forrester Research anticipated a 300% increase in investment in artificial intelligence in 2017 compared to 2016. The Artificial Intelligence market will grow from $8 billion in 2016 to more than $47 billion in 2020. Based on this report, Forbes magazine has come up with a list of the ‘hottest ten Artificial Intelligence technologies’ that will rule the market in the near future. Natural Language Generation is one of them and it is set to see a huge boost.
Examples and Applications of Natural Language Generation
Natural Language Generation techniques are put to use across various industries as per their requirements. Healthcare-Pharma, Banking services, Digital marketing… it’s everywhere!
From fund reporting in finance and campaign analytics reporting in marketing to personalised client alerts for preparing dashboards in sales and customer service maintenance, it is used to generate effective results for all departments in an organisation. Let’s have a quick look at how NLG has varied applications in various departments:
Marketing – Two main responsibilities of a marketing department are designing market strategy and conducting market research. Both of these activities heavily depend on data analysis, and in today’s world of big data, it is becoming increasingly complex. Natural Language Generation tools can help you scan big data, analyse it and write reports for you within a few hours.
Sales – A sales analysis report indicates the trends in a company’s sales volume over a period of time. A sales analysis report throws light on the factors that affects sales, like season, competitors strategy, advertising efforts etc. Managers use sales analysis reports to recognise market opportunities and areas where they could increase volume. These reports are purely based on humongous data. Natural Language Generation programs save your time and efforts of manually scanning data, finding trends and writing reports. Once you feed the inputs, it takes care of all of these activities.
Banking and finance – May it be a finance department of an organisation or an investment bank, financial reports stating the financial health of a company needs to be written and sent out to shareholders, investors, rating agencies, government agencies etc. The general financial statements like balance sheets, Statement of cash flows, Income statement etc. are loaded with numbers and a reader likes to have a quick understanding of these statements. Natural Language Generation software scans through these statements and presents this information in a simple, text format rather than complicated accounting one.
Healthcare and medicine – Recently Natural Language Generation tools are being used to summarise e-medical records. Additional research in this area is opening doors to prudent medical decision-making for medical professionals. It is also being used in communicating with patients, as a part of patient awareness programs in India, as per the NCBI report. The data collected through medical research like what kind of lifestyle diseases are most dreadful or what kinds of habits are healthy can be summarized in a simple language for patients which is extremely useful for the doctors to make a case for their advice.
And this is just the tip of the iceberg. The applications of NLG tools are widespread already and are ready to take off to greater heights in the future.
Techniques of natural language generation – How to get started
A refined Natural Language Generation system needs to inject some aspects of planning and amalgamation of information to enable the NLG tools to generate the text which appears natural and interesting. The general stages of natural language generation, as proposed by Dale and Reiter in their book ‘Building Natural Language Generation Systems’ are:
Content determination:
In this stage, a data analyst must decide what kind of information to present by using their discretion with respect to relevance. For example, deciding what kind of information a share trader would want to know vs what kind of information a dealer in the commodity market would want to know.
Document structuring:
In this stage, a user will have to decide the sequence, format of content and the desired template. For example, to decide the order of large cap, mid cap, small cap shares while writing a narrative about equity movement in the stock market.
Aggregation:
No repetition is the basic rule of any report writing. To keep it simple and improve readability, merging sentences, omitting repetitive words, phrases etc, falls under this stage. For example, if NLG software is writing a report on sales and there is no substantial change in volume of sales for a few months, there are chances NLG software might write repetitive paragraphs for no substantial information. You will then have to condense it in a way it does not become long and boring.
Lingual choice:
Deciding what words to use exactly to describe particular concepts. For example, deciding whether to use the word ‘medium’ or ‘moderate’ while describing a change.
Best software products available for natural language generation
There are a variety of software products available to help you get started with Natural Language Generation. Quill, Syntheses, Arria, Amazon Polly, Yseop are popular ones. You can make a decision based on the industry you are operating in, for the department you will be deploying the tool, exact nature of report creation, etc. Let us see what kind of aid does these programs offer to the businesses.
Yseop: Yseop Compose’s Natural Language Generation software enables data-driven decision making by explaining insights in a plain language. Yseop Compose is the only multilingual Natural Language Generation software and hence truly global.
Amazon Polly: It is a software that turns text into lifelike speech, allowing you to create applications that talk, and build entirely new categories of speech-enabled products.
Arria: Arria NLG Platform is the one that integrates cutting-edge techniques in data analytics, artificial intelligence and computational linguistics. It analyses large and diverse data sets and automatically writes tailored, actionable reports on what’s happening within that data, with no human intervention, at vast scale and speed.
Quill: It is an advanced NLG platform which comprehends user intent and performs relevant data analysis to deliver Intelligent Narratives—automated stories full of audience-relevant, insightful information.
Synthesys: It is one of the popular NLG software products that scans through all data and highlights the important people, places, organizations, events and facts being discussed, resolve highlighted points and determines what’s important, connecting the dots together and figures out what the final picture means by comparing it with the opportunities, risks and anomalies users are looking for.
Natural Language Generation tools automate analysis and increase the efficacy of Business Intelligence tools. Rather than generating charts and tables, NLG tools interpret the data and draft analysis in a written form that communicates precisely what’s important to know. These tools perform regular analysis of predefined data sets, eliminate the manual efforts required to draft reports and the skilled labour required to analyse and interpret the results.
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What are the best resources to learn Natural Language Generation?
Gartner, a leading research and advisory company forecasts that most companies will have to employ a Chief Data officer by 2019. With the gigantic amount of data available, it is important to decide which information can add business value, drive efficiency and improve risk management. This will be the responsibility of Data Officers. With increasing global demand for the profession, there can be no better time to learn about Natural Language Generation which is a critical part of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence.
Though Natural Language generation has a huge scope, there are very few comprehensive academic programs designed to train candidates to be future ready. However, with a great vision, UpGrad offers a PG Diploma in Machine Learning and AI, in partnership with IIIT-Bangalore, which aims to build highly skilled professionals in India to cater to the increasing global demand. It gives you a chance to learn from a comprehensive collection of case-studies, hand-picked by industry experts, to give you an in-depth understanding of how Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence impact industries like Telecom, Automobile, Finance & more.
What are you waiting for? Don’t let go of this wonderful opportunity, start exploring today!
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A Beginner’s Guide To Natural Language Understanding
“A computer would deserve to be called intelligent if it could deceive a human into believing that it was human.”
– Alan Turing
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The entire gamut of artificial intelligence is based on machines being able to ‘understand’ and ‘respond’ to human beings. Which is impossible without the capability of machines to interact with humans in their natural language, like other human beings. Moreover, understanding does not involve the mere exchange of information and data but an exchange of emotions, feelings, ideas and intent. Can machines ever do that? Well, the answer is affirmative and it is not even that surprising anymore. What is this miraculous technology that smoothly facilitates the interaction between humans and machines? It is Natural Language Understanding.
What is Natural Language Understanding?
Natural Language Understanding is a part of Natural Language Processing. It undertakes the analysis of content, text-based metadata and generates summarized content in natural, human language. It is opposite to the process of Natural Language Generation. NLG deals with input in the form of data and generates output in the form of plain text while Natural Language Understanding tools process text or voice that is in natural language and generates appropriate responses by summarizing, editing or creating vocal responses.
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Natural Language Understanding Vs Natural Language Processing
Natural Language Processing is a wide term which includes both Natural Language Understanding and Natural Language Generations along with many other techniques revolving around translating and analysing natural language by machines to perform certain commands.
Examples of Natural Language Processing
Natural Language Processing is everywhere and we use it in our daily lives without even realising it. Do you know how spam messages are separated from your emails? Or autocorrect and predictive typing that saves so much of our time, how does that happen? Well, it is all part of Natural Language Processing. Here are some examples of Natural Language Processing technologies used widely:
Intelligent personal assistants – We are all familiar with Siri and Cortana. These mobile software products that perform tasks, offer services, with a combination of user input, location awareness, and the ability to access information from a variety of online sources are undoubtedly one of the biggest achievements of natural language processing.
Machine translation – To read a description of a beautiful picture on Instagram or to read updates on Facebook, we all have used that ‘see translation’ command at least once. And google translation services helps in urgent situations or sometimes just to learn few new words. These are all examples of machine translations, where machines provide us with translations from one natural language to another.
Speech recognition – Converting spoken words into data is an example of natural language processing. It is used for multiple purposes like dictating to Microsoft Word, voice biometrics, voice user interface, etc.
Affective computing – It is nothing but emotional intelligence training for machines. They learn to understand your emotions, feelings, ideas to interact with you in more humane ways.
Natural language generation – Natural language generation tools scan structured data, undertake analysis and generate information in text format produced in natural language.
Natural language understanding – As explained above, it scans content written in natural languages and generates small, comprehensible summaries of text.
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Best tools for Natural Language Understanding available today
Natural Language Processing deals with human language in its most natural form and on a real-time basis, as it appears in social media content, emails, web pages, tweets, product descriptions, newspaper articles, and scientific research papers, etc, in a variety of languages. Businesses need to keep a tab on all this content, constantly. Here are a few popular natural language understanding software products which effectively aid them in this daunting task.
Wolfram – Wolfram Alpha is an answer engine developed by Wolfram Alpha LLC (a subsidiary of Wolfram Research). It is an online service that provides answers to factual questions by computing the answer from externally sourced, “curated data”.
Natural language toolkit – The Natural Language Toolkit, also known as NLTK, is a suite of programs used for symbolic and statistical natural language processing (NLP) for the English language. It is written in the Python programming language and was developed by Steven Bird and Edward Loper at the University of Pennsylvania.
Stanford coreNLP – Stanford CoreNLP is an annotation-based NLP pipeline that offers core natural language analysis. The basic distribution provides model files for the analysis of English, but the engine is compatible with models for other languages.
GATE (General Architecture for Text Engineering) – It offers a wide range of natural language processing tasks. It is a mature software used across industries for more than 15 years.
Apache openNLP – The Apache OpenNLP is a toolkit based on machine learning to process natural language text. It is written in Java and is produced by Apache software foundation. It offers services like tokenizers, chucking, parsing, part of speech tagging, sentence segmentation, etc.
Applications of Natural Language Understanding
As we have already seen, natural language understanding is basically nothing but a smart machine reading comprehension. Now let’s have a close look at how it is used to promote the efficiency and accuracy, while saving time and efforts, of human resources, which can then be put to better use.
Collecting data and data analysis – To be able to serve well, a business must know what is expected out of them. Data on customer feedback is not numeric data like sales or financial statements. It is open-ended and text heavy. For companies to identify patterns and trends throughout, this data and taking action as per identified gaps or insights, is crucial for survival and growth. More and more companies are realizing that implementing a natural language understanding solution provides strong benefits to analysing metadata like customer feedback and product reviews. Natural language understanding in such cases proves to be more effective and accurate than traditional methods like hand-coding. It helps the customer’s voice to reach you clearer and faster, which leads to effective strategizing and productive implementation.
Reputation monitoring – Customer feedback is just a tip of the iceberg as compared to the real feelings of customers about the brand. As customers, we hardly participate in customer survey feedbacks. Most of the real customer sentiments hence are trapped in unstructured data. News, blog posts, chats, and social media updates contain huge amounts of such data which is more natural and can be used to know the ‘real’ feelings of customers about the product or service. Natural language understanding software products help businesses to scan through such scattered data and draw practical inferences.
Customer service – Natural Language Understanding is able to communicate with untrained individuals and can understand their intent. NLU is capable of understanding the meaning in spite of some human errors like mispronunciations or transposed letters or words. It also uses algorithms that break down human speech to structured ontology and fishes out the meaning, intent, sentiment, and the crux of human speech. One of the most important goals of NLU is to create chatbots or human interacting bots that can effectively communicate with humans without any human supervision. There are various software products like Nuance which are already involved in customer interaction.
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Automated trading – Capital market trading automation is not a new phenomenon anymore. Multiple software products and platforms are now available that analyse market movements, the profile of industries and financial strength of a company and based on technical analysis design the trading patterns. Advanced Natural Language Understanding tools which scan through various sources like financial statements, reports, market news are the basis of automated trading systems.
Market Intelligence – “What are competitors doing?” is one of the most critical information businesses need on a real-time basis. Information influences markets. Information exchange between various stakeholders designs and redesigns market dynamics all the time. Keeping a close watch on the status of an industry is essential to developing a powerful strategy, but the channels of content distribution today (RSS feeds, social media, emails) generate so much information that it’s been increasingly difficult to keep a tab on such unstructured, multi-sourced content. Financial markets have started using natural language understanding tools rigorously to keep track of information exchange in the market and help them reach it immediately.
Due to such varied functions carried out by natural language understanding programs, its importance in trade, business, commerce and the industry is ever increasing. It is a smart move to learn natural language understanding programs to ensure yourself a successful career.
What is the best way to learn Natural Language Understanding?
The best way to prepare yourself for a brighter future in technological endeavors is to understand the algorithms of Artificial intelligence. The Post Graduate Diploma in Machine Learning and AI by UpGrad offers a chance to master concepts like Neural Networks, Natural Language Processing, Graphical Models and Reinforcement Learning. The most unique aspect of this course is the career support. And, the industry mentorship, which will help you prepare yourself for intense competition in the industry, within your actual job. So, let’s learn to use software products widely used in industry mentioned earlier like NLKT. This program aims at producing well-rounded data scientists and AI professionals with thorough knowledge of mathematics, expertise in relevant tools/languages and understanding of cutting-edge algorithms and applications.
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Neural Networks for Dummies: A Comprehensive Guide
Our brain is an incredible pattern-recognizing machine. It processes ‘inputs’ from the outside world, categorizes them (that’s a dog; that’s a slice of pizza; ooh, that’s a bus coming towards me!), and then generates an ‘output’ (petting the dog; the yummy taste of that pizza; getting out of the way of the bus!).
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All of this with little conscious effort, almost impulsively. It’s the very same system that senses if someone is mad at us, or involuntarily notices the stop signal as we speed past it. Psychologists call this mode of thinking ‘System 1’, and it includes innate skills — like perception and fear — that we share with other animals. (There’s also a ‘System 2’, to know more about it, check out the extremely informative Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman).
How is all of this related to Neural Networks, you ask? Wait, we’ll get there in a second.
Look at the image above, just your regular numbers, distorted to help you explain the learning of Neural Networks better. Even looking cursorily, your mind will prompt you with the words “192”.
You surely didn’t go “Ah, that seems like a straight line, I think it’s a 1”. You didn’t compute it – it happened instantly.
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Fascinating, right?
There is a very simple reason for this – you’ve come across the digit so many times in your life, that by trial and error, your brain automatically recognizes the digit if you present it with something even remotely close to it.
Let’s cut to the chase.
What exactly is a Neural Network? How does it work?
By definition, a neural network is a system of hardware or softwares, patterned after the working of neurons in the human brain. Basically, it helps computers think and learn like humans. An example will make this clearer:
As a child, if we ever touched a hot coffee mug and it burnt us, we made sure not to touch a hot mug ever again. But did we have any such concept of hurt in our conscience BEFORE we touched it? Not really.
This adjustment of our knowledge and understanding of the world around us is based on recognizing patterns. And, like us, computers, too, learn through the same type of pattern recognition. This learning forms the whole basis of the working of neural networks.
Traditional computer programs work on logic trees – If A happens, then B happens. All the potential outcomes for each of the systems can be preprogrammed. However, this eliminates the scope of flexibility. There’s no learning there.
And that’s where Neural Networks come into the picture! A neural network is built without any specific logic. Essentially, it is a system that is trained to look for and adapt to, patterns within data. It is modeled exactly after how our own brain works. Each neuron (idea) is connected via synapses. Each synapse has a value that represents the probability or likelihood of the connection between two neurons to occur. Take a look at the image below:
What exactly are neurons, you ask?
Simply put, a neuron is just a singular concept. A mug, the colour white, tea -, the burning sensation of touching a hot mug, basically anything. All of these are possible neurons. All of them can be connected, and the strength of their connection is decided by the value of their synapse. Higher the value, better the connection. Let’s see one basic neural network connection to make you understand better:
Each neuron is the node and the lines connecting them are synapses. Synapse value represents the likelihood that one neuron will be found alongside the other. So, it’s pretty clear that the diagram shown in the above image is describing a mug containing coffee, which is white in colour and is extremely hot.
All mugs do not have the properties like the one in question. We can connect many other neurons to the mug. Tea, for example, is likely more common than coffee. The likelihood of two neurons being connected is determined by the strength of the synapse connecting them. Greater the number of hot mugs, the stronger the synapse.
However, in a world where mugs are not used to hold hot beverages, the number of hot mugs would decrease drastically. Incidentally, this decrease would also result in lowering the strength of the synapses connecting mugs to heat.
So,
Becomes
This small and seemingly unimportant description of a mug represents the core construction of neural networks.
We touch a mug kept on a table — we find that it’s hot. It makes us think all mugs are hot. Then, we touch another mug – this time, the one kept on the shelf – it’s not hot at all. We conclude that mugs in the shelf aren’t hot. As we grow, we evolve.
Our brain has been taking in data all this time. This data makes it determine an accurate probability as to whether or not the mug we’re about to touch will be hot. Neural Networks learn in the exact same way.
Now, let’s talk a bit aboutthe first and the most basic model of a neural network: The Perceptron!
What is a Perceptron?
A perceptron is the most basic model of a neural network. It takes multiple binary inputs: x1, x2, …, and produces a single binary output.
Let’s understand the above neural network better with the help of an analogy.
Say you walk to work. Your decision of going to work is based on two factors majorly: the weather, and whether it is a weekday or not. The weather factor is still manageable, but working on weekends is a big no! Since we have to work with binary inputs, let’s propose the conditions as yes or no questions. Is the weather fine? 1 for yes, 0 for no. Is it a weekday? 1 yes, 0 no.
Remember, we cannot explicitly tell the neural network these conditions; it’ll have to learn them for itself. How will it decide the priority of these factors while making a decision? By using something known as “weights”. Weights are just a numerical representation of the preferences. A higher weight will make the neural network consider that input at a higher priority than the others. This is represented by the w1, w2…in the flowchart above.
“Okay, this is all pretty fascinating, but where do Neural Networks find work in a practical scenario?”
Real-life applications of Neural Networks
If you haven’t yet figured it out, then here it is, a neural network can do pretty much everything as long as you’re able to get enough data and an efficient machine to get the right parameters. Anything that even remotely requires machine learning turns to neural networks for help. Deep learning is another domain that makes extensive use of neural networks. It is one of the many machine learning algorithms that enables a computer to perform a plethora of tasks such as classification, clustering, or prediction.
With the help of neural networks, we can find the solution of such problems for which a traditional-algorithmic method is expensive or does not exist.
Neural networks can learn by example, hence, we do not need to program it to a large extent.
Neural networks are accurate and significantly faster than conventional speeds.
Because of the reasons mentioned above and more, Deep Learning, by making use of Neural Networks, finds extensive use in the following areas:
Speech recognition: Take the example of Amazon Echo Dot – magic speakers that allow you to order food, get news and weather updates, or simply buy something online just by talking it out.
Handwriting recognition: Neural networks can be trained to understand the patterns in somebody’s handwriting. Have a look at Google’s Handwriting Input application – which makes use of handwriting recognition to seamlessly convert your scribbles into meaningful texts.
Face recognition: From improving the security on your phone (Face ID) to the super-cool Snapchat filters – face recognition is everywhere. If you’ve ever uploaded a photo on Facebook and were asked to tag the people in your photo, you know what face recognition is!
Providing artificial intelligence in games: If you’ve ever played chess against a computer, you already know how artificial intelligence powers games and game development. It’s to the extent that players use AI to improve upon their tactics and try their strategies first-hand.
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In Conclusion…
Neural networks form the backbone of almost every big technology or invention you see today. It’s only fair to say that imagining deep/machine learning without neural networks is next to impossible. Depending on the way you implement a network and the kind of learning you put to use, you can achieve a lot out of a neural network, as compared to a traditional computer system.
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Neural Networks: Applications in the Real World
Neural Networks find extensive applications in areas where traditional computers don’t fare too well. Like, for problem statements where instead of programmed outputs, you’d like the system to learn, adapt, and change the results in sync with the data you’re throwing at it. Neural networks also find rigorous applications whenever we talk about dealing with noisy or incomplete data. And honestly, most of the data present out there is indeed noisy.
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With their brain-like ability to learn and adapt, Neural Networks form the entire basis and have applications in Artificial Intelligence, and consequently, Machine Learning algorithms. Before we get to how Neural Networks power Artificial Intelligence, let’s first talk a bit about what exactly is Artificial Intelligence.
For the longest time possible, the word “intelligence” was just associated with the human brain. But then, something happened! Scientists found a way of training computers by following the methodology our brain uses. Thus came Artificial Intelligence, which can essentially be defined as intelligence originating from machines. To put it even more simply, Machine Learning is simply providing machines with the ability to “think”, “learn”, and “adapt”.
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With so much said and done, it’s imperative to understand what exactly are the use cases of AI, and how Neural Networks help the cause. Let’s dive into the applications of Neural Networks across various domains – from Social Media and Online Shopping, to Personal Finance, and finally, to the smart assistant on your phone.
You should remember that this list is in no way exhaustive, as the applications of neural networks are widespread. Basically, anything that makes the machines learn is deploying one or the other type of neural network.
Social Media
The ever-increasing data deluge surrounding social media gives the creators of these platforms the unique opportunity to dabble with the unlimited data they have. No wonder you get to see a new feature every fortnight. It’s only fair to say that all of this would’ve been like a distant dream without Neural Networks to save the day.
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Neural Networks and their learning algorithms find extensive applications in the world of social media. Let’s see how:
Facebook
As soon as you upload any photo to Facebook, the service automatically highlights faces and prompts friends to tag. How does it instantly identify which of your friends is in the photo?
The answer is simple – Artificial Intelligence. In a video highlighting Facebook’s Artificial Intelligence research, they discuss the applications of Neural Networks to power their facial recognition software. Facebook is investing heavily in this area, not only within the organization, but also through the acquisitions of facial-recognition startups like Face.com (acquired in 2012 for a rumored $60M), Masquerade (acquired in 2016 for an undisclosed sum), and Faciometrics (acquired in 2016 for an undisclosed sum).
In June 2016, Facebook announced a new Artificial Intelligence initiative that uses various deep neural networks such as DeepText – an artificial intelligence engine that can understand the textual content of thousands of posts per second, with near-human accuracy.
Instagram
Instagram, acquired by Facebook back in 2012, uses deep learning by making use of a connection of recurrent neural networks to identify the contextual meaning of an emoji – which has been steadily replacing slangs (for instance, a laughing emoji could replace “rofl”).
By algorithmically identifying the sentiments behind emojis, Instagram creates and auto-suggests emojis and emoji related hashtags. This may seem like a minor application of AI, but being able to interpret and analyze this emoji-to-text translation at a larger scale sets the basis for further analysis on how people use Instagram.
Pinterest
Pinterest uses computer vision – another application of neural networks, where we teach computers to “see” like a human, in order to automatically identify objects in images (or “pins”, as they call it) and then recommend visually similar pins. Other applications of neural networks at Pinterest include spam prevention, search and discovery, ad performance and monetization, and email marketing.
Online Shopping
Do you find yourself in situations where you’re set to buy something, but you end up buying a lot more than planned, thanks to some super-awesome recommendations?
Yeah, blame neural networks for that. By making use of neural network and its learnings, the e-commerce giants are creating Artificial Intelligence systems that know you better than yourself. Let’s see how:
Search
Your Amazon searches (“earphones”, “pizza stone”, “laptop charger”, etc) return a list of the most relevant products related to your search, without wasting much time. In a description of its product search technology, Amazon states that its algorithms learn automatically to combine multiple relevant features. It uses past patterns and adapts to what is important for the customer in question.
And what makes the algorithms “learn”? You guessed it right – Neural Networks!
Recommendations
Amazon shows you recommendations using its “customers who viewed this item also viewed”, “customers who bought this item also bought”, and also via curated recommendations on your homepage, on the bottom of the item pages, and through emails. Amazon makes use of Artificial Neural Networks to train its algorithms to learn the pattern and behaviour of its users. This, in turn, helps Amazon provide even better and customized recommendations.
Banking/Personal Finance
Cheque Deposits Through Mobile
Most large banks are eliminating the need for customers to physically deliver a cheque to the bank by offering the ability to deposit cheques through a smartphone application. The technologies that power these applications use Neural Networks to decipher and convert handwriting on checks into text. Essentially, Neural Networks find themselves at the core of any application that requires handwriting/speech/image recognition.
Fraud Prevention
How can a financial institution determine a fraudulent transaction? Most of the times, the daily transaction volume is too much to be reviewed manually. To help with this, Artificial Intelligence is used to create systems that learn through training what types of transactions are fraudulent (speak learning, speak Neural Networks!).
FICO – the company that creates credit ratings that are used to determine creditworthiness, makes use of neural networks to power their Artificial Intelligence to predict fraudulent transactions. Factors that affect the artificial neural network’s final output include the frequency and size of the transaction and the kind of retailer involved.
Powering Your Mobile Phones
Voice-to-Text
One of the more common features on smartphones today is voice-to-text conversion. Simply pressing a button or saying a particular phrase (“Ok Google”, for example), lets you start speaking to your phone and your phone converts the audio into text. Google makes use of artificial neural networks in recurrent connection to power voice search. Microsoft also claims to have developed a speech-recognition system – using Neural Networks, that can transcribe conversations slightly more accurately than humans.
Smart Personal Assistants
With the voice-to-text technology becoming accurate enough to rely on for basic conversations, it is turning into the control interface for a new generation of personal assistants. Initially, there were simpler phone assistants – Siri and Google Now (now succeeded by the more sophisticated Google Assistant), which could perform internet searches, set reminders, and integrate with your calendar. Amazon expanded upon this model with the announcement of complementary hardware and software components – Alexa, and Echo (later, Dot).
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To Wrap Up…
We’ve only scratched the surface when it comes to the applications of neural networks in day-to-day life. Specific industries and domains have specific interactions with Artificial Intelligence by making use of neural networks which is far beyond what’s talked about in this article. For example, chess players regularly use chess engines to analyze their games, improve themselves, and practice new tactics – and it goes without saying that the chess engine in question deploys Neural Networks to accomplish the learning.
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Do you have any other interesting real-life use case of Neural Networks that we might have missed? Drop it in the comments below!
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Go and the Challenge to Artificial General Intelligence
This article aims to explore the connection between the game ‘Go’ and artificial intelligence. The objective is to answer the questions – What makes the game of Go, special? Why was mastering the game of Go difficult for a computer? Why was a computer program able to beat a chess grandmaster in 1997? Why did it take close to two decades to crack Go?
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“Gentlemen should not waste their time on trivial games – they should study Go”
– Confucius
In fact, artificial intelligence pundits thought computers would only be able to beat a world Go champion by 2027. Thanks to DeepMind, an artificial intelligence company under the umbrella of Google, this formidable task was achieved a decade earlier. This article will talk about the technologies used by DeepMind to beat the world Go champion. Finally, this post discusses how this technology can be used to resolve some complex, real-world problems.
Go – What is it?
Go is a 3000-year-old Chinese strategy board game, which has retained its popularity through the ages. Played by tens of millions of people worldwide, Go is a two-player board game with simple rules and intuitive strategy. Different board sizes are in use for playing this game; professionals use a 19×19 board.
The game starts with an empty board. Each player then takes turns to place the black and white stones (black goes first) on the board, at the intersection of the lines (unlike chess, where you place pieces in the squares). A player can capture the stones of the opponent by surrounding it from all sides. For each captured stone, some points are awarded to the player. The objective of the game is to occupy maximum territory on the board along with capturing your opponents’ stones.
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Go is about creation, unlike Chess, which is about destruction. Go requires freedom, creativity, intuition, balance, strategy and intellectual depth to master the game. Playing Go involves both sides of the brain. In fact, the brain scans of Go players have revealed that Go helps in brain development by improving connections between both the brain hemispheres.
Go and the Challenge to Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Computers were able to master Tic-Tac-Toe in 1952. Deep Blue was able to beat Chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in 1997. The computer program was able to win against the world champion in Jeopardy (a popular American game) in 2001. DeepMind’s AlphaGo was able to defeat a world Go champion in 2016. Why is it considered challenging for a computer program to master the game of Go?
Chess is played on an 8×8 board whereas Go uses a 19×19 size board. In the opening of a chess game, a player will have 20 possible moves. In a Go opening, a player can have 361 possible moves.The number of possible Go board positions is equal to 10 to the power 170; more than the number of atoms in our universe! The potential number of board positions makes Go googol times (10 to the power 100) more complex than chess.
In chess, for each step, a player is faced with a choice of 35 moves. On average, a Go player will have 250 possible moves at each step. In Chess, at any given position, it is relatively easy for a computer to do brute force search and choose the best possible move which maximises the chances of winning. A brute force search is not possible in the case of Go, as the potential number of legal moves allowed for each step is humongous.
For a computer to master chess, it becomes easier as the game progresses because the pieces are removed from the board. In Go, it becomes more difficult for the computer program as stones are added to the board as the game progresses. Typically, a Go game will last 3 times longer than a game of chess.
Due to all these reasons, a top computer Go program was only able to catch up with the Go world champion in 2016, after a huge explosion of new machine learning techniques. Scientists working at DeepMind were able to come up with a computer program called AlphaGo which defeated world champion Lee Seedol. Achieving the task was not easy. The researchers at DeepMind came up with many novel innovations in the process of creating AlphaGo.
“The rules of Go are so elegant, organic, and rigorously logical that if intelligent life forms exist elsewhere in the universe, they almost certainly play Go.”
– Edward Laskar
How AlphaGo Works
AlphaGo is a general purpose algorithm, which means it can be put to use for solving other tasks as well. For example, Deep Blue from IBM is specifically designed for playing chess. Rules of chess together with the accumulated knowledge from centuries of playing the game are programmed into the brain of the program. Deep Blue can’t be used even for playing trivial games like Tic-Tac-Toe. It can do only one specific thing, which it is very good at, i.e. playing chess. AlphaGo can learn to play other games as well apart from Go. These general purpose algorithms constitute a novel field of research, called Artificial General Intelligence.
AlphaGo uses state-of-the-art methods – Deep Neural Networks (DNN), Reinforcement Learning (RL), Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), Deep Q Networks (DQN) (a novel technique introduced and popularised by DeepMind which combines neural networks with reinforcement learning), to name a few. It then combines all these methods innovatively to achieve superhuman level mastery in the game of Go.
Let’s first look at each individual piece of this puzzle before going into how these pieces are tied together to achieve the task at hand.
Deep Neural Networks
DNNs are a technique to perform machine learning, loosely inspired by the functioning of the human brain. A DNN’s architecture consists of layers of neurons. DNN can recognise patterns in data without being explicitly programmed for it.
It maps the inputs to outputs without anyone specifically programming it for the same. As an example, let us assume that we have fed the network with a lot of cat and dog photos. At the same time, we are also training the system by telling it (in the form of labels) if a particular image is of a cat or a dog (this is called supervised learning). A DNN will learn to recognise the pattern from the photos to successfully differentiate between a cat and a dog. The main objective of the training is that when a DNN sees a new picture of either a dog or a cat, it should be able to correctly classify it, i.e. predict if it is a cat or a dog.
Let us understand the architecture of a simple DNN. The number of neurons in the input layer corresponds to the size of the input. Let us assume our cat and dog photos are a 28×28 image. Each row and column will consist of 28 pixels each, which makes it a total of 784 pixels for each picture. In such a case the input layer will comprise of 784 neurons, one for each pixel. The number of neurons in the output layer will depend on the number of classes into which the output needs to be classified. In this case, the output layer will consist of two neurons – one corresponding to ‘cat’, the other to ‘dog’.
There will be many neuron layers in between the input and output layers (which is the origin of using the term ‘Deep’ in ‘Deep Neural Network’). These are called “hidden layers”. The number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each layer is not fixed. In fact, changing these values is exactly what leads to optimisation of performance. These values are called hyper-parameters, and they need to be tuned according to the problem at hand. The experiments surrounding neural networks largely involve finding out the optimal number of hyperparameters.
The training phase of DNNs will consist of a forward pass and a backward pass. First, all the connections between the neurons are initialised with random weights. During the forward pass, the network is fed with a single image. The inputs (pixel data from the image) are combined with the parameters of the network (weights, biases and activation functions) and feed-forwarded through hidden layers, all the way to the output, which returns a probability of a photo belonging to each of the classes.
Then, this probability is compared with the actual class label, and an “error” is calculated. At this point, the backward pass is performed – this error information is passed back through the network through a technique called “back-propagation”. During initial phases of training, this error will be high, and a good training mechanism will gradually reduce this error.
The DNNs are trained in this way with a forward and backward pass until the weights stop changing (this is known as convergence). Then the DNNs will be able to predict and classify the images with a high degree of accuracy, i.e. whether the picture has a cat or a dog.
Research has given us many different Deep Neural Network Architectures. For Computer Vision problems (i.e. problems involving images), Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs) have traditionally given good results. For issues which involve a sequence – speech recognition or language translation – Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) provide excellent results.
In the case of AlphaGo, the process was as follows: first, the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) was trained on millions of images of board positions. Next, the network was informed about the subsequent move played by the human experts in each case during the training phase of the network. In the same manner as earlier mentioned, the actual value was compared with the output and some sort of “error” metric was found.
At the end of the training, the DNN will output the next moves along with probabilities which are likely to be played by an expert human player. This kind of network can only come up with a step which is played by a human expert player. DeepMind was able to achieve an accuracy of 60% in predicting the move that the human would make. However, to beat a human expert at Go, this is not sufficient. The output from the DNN is further processed by Deep Reinforcement Network, an approach conceived by DeepMind, which combines deep neural networks and reinforcement learning.
Deep Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) is not a new concept. Nobel prize laureate Ivan Pavlov experimented on classical conditioning on dogs and discovered the principles of reinforcement learning in 1902. RL is also one of the methods with which humans learn new skills. Ever wondered how the Dolphins in shows are trained to jump to such great heights out of the water? It is with the help of RL. First, the rope which is used for preparing the dolphins is submerged in the pool. Whenever the dolphin crosses the cable from the top, it is rewarded with food. When it does not cross the rope the reward is withdrawn. Slowly the dolphin will learn that it is paid whenever it passes the cord from above. The height of the rope is increased gradually to train the dolphin.
Agents in reinforcement learning are also trained using the same principle. The agent will take action and interact with the environment. The action taken by the agent causes the environment to change. Further, the agent received feedback about the environment. The agent is either rewarded or not, depending on its action and the objective at hand. The important point is, this objective at hand is not explicitly stated for the agent. Given sufficient time, the agent will learn how to maximise future rewards.
Combining this with DNNs, DeepMind invented Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) or Deep Q Networks (DQN) where Q stands for maximum future rewards obtained. DQNs were first applied to Atari games. DQN learnt how to play different types of Atari games just out of the box. The breakthrough was that no explicit programming was required for representing different kinds of Atari games. A single program was smart enough to learn about all the different environments of the game, and through self-play, was able to master many of them.
In 2014, DQN outperformed previous machine learning methods in 43 of the 49 games (now it has been tested on more than 70 games). In fact, in more than half the games, it performed at more than 75% of the level of a professional human player. In certain games, DQN even came up with surprisingly far-sighted strategies that allowed it to achieve the maximum attainable score—for example, in Breakout, it learned to first dig a tunnel at one end of the brick wall, so the ball would bounce around the back and knock out bricks from behind.
Policy and Value Networks
There are two main types of networks inside AlphaGo:
One of the objectives of AlphaGo’s DQNs is to go beyond the human expert play and mimic new innovative moves, by playing against itself millions of times and thereby incrementally improving the weights. This DQN had an 80% win rate against common DNNs. DeepMind decided to combine these two neural networks (DNN and DQN) to form the first type of network – a ‘Policy Network’. Briefly, the job of a policy network is to reduce the breadth of the search for the next move and to come up with a few good moves which are worth further exploration.
Once the policy network is frozen, it plays against itself millions of times. These games generate a new Go dataset, consisting of the various board positions and the outcomes of the games. This dataset is used to create an evaluation function. The second type of function – the ‘Value Network’ is used to predict the outcome of the game. It learns to take various board positions as inputs and predict the outcome of the game and the measure of it.
Combining the Policy and Value Networks
After all this training, DeepMind finally ended up with two neural networks – Policy and Value Networks. The policy network takes the board position as an input and outputs the probability distribution as the likelihood of each of the moves in that position. The value network again takes the position of the board as input and outputs a single real number between 0 and 1. If the output of the network is zero, it means that white is completely winning and 1 indicates a complete win for the player with black stones.
The Policy network evaluates current positions, and the value network evaluates future moves. The division of tasks into these two networks by DeepMind was one of the major reasons behind the success of AlphaGo.
Combining Policy and Value networks with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Rollouts
The neural networks on their own will not be enough. To win the game of Go, some more strategising is required. This plan is achieved with the help of MCTS. Monte Carlo Tree Search also helps in stitching the two neural networks together in an innovative way. Neural networks assist in an efficient search for the next best move.
Let’s try constructing an example which will help you visualise all of this much better. Imagine that the game is in a new position, one which has not been encountered before. In such a situation, a policy network is called upon to evaluate the current situation and possible future paths; as well as the desirability of the paths and the value of each move by the Value networks, supported by Monte Carlo rollouts.
Policy network finds all the possible “good” moves and value networks evaluate each of their outcomes. In Monte Carlo rollouts, a few thousand random games are played from the positions recognised by the policy network. Experiments were done to determine the relative importance of value networks against Monte Carlo rollouts. As a result of this experimentation, DeepMind assigned 80% weightage to the Value networks and 20% weightage to the Monte Carlo rollout evaluation function.
The policy network reduces the width of the search from 200-odd possible moves to the 4 or 5 best moves. The policy network expands the tree from these 4 or 5 steps which need consideration. The value network helps in cutting down the depth of the tree search by instantly returning the outcome of the game from that position. Finally, the move with the highest Q value is selected, i.e. the step with maximum benefit.
“The game is played primarily through intuition and feel, and because of its beauty, subtlety and intellectual depth it has captured the human imagination for centuries.”
– Demis Hassabis
Application of AlphaGo to real-world problems
The vision of DeepMind, from their website, is very telling – “Solve intelligence. Use this knowledge to make the world a better place”. The end goal of this algorithm is to make it general-purpose so that it can be used to solve complex real-world problems. DeepMind’s AlphaGo is a significant step forward in the quest for AGI. DeepMind has used its technology successfully to solve real-world problems – let’s look at some examples:
Reduction in energy consumption
DeepMind’s AI was successfully utilised to reduce Google’s data centre cooling cost by 40%. In any large-scale energy consuming environment this improvement is a phenomenal step forward. One of the primary sources of energy consumption for a data centre is cooling. A lot of heat generated from running the servers needs to be removed for keeping it operational. This is accomplished by large-scale industrial equipment like pumps, chillers and cooling towers. As the environment of the data centre is very dynamic, it is challenging to operate at optimal energy efficiency. DeepMind’s AI was used to tackle this problem.
First, they proceeded using historical data, which was collected by thousands of sensors within the data centre. Using this data, they trained an ensemble of DNNs on average future Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE). As this is a general-purpose algorithm, it is planned that it will be applied to other challenges as well, in the data centre environment.
The possible applications of this technology include getting more energy from the same unit of input, reducing semiconductor manufacturing energy and water usage, etc. DeepMind announced in its blog post that this knowledge would be shared in a future publication so that other data centres, industrial operators and ultimately the environment can greatly benefit from this significant step.
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Radiotherapy planning for head and neck cancers
DeepMind has collaborated with the radiotherapy department at University College London Hospital’s NHS Foundation Trust, a world leader in cancer treatment.
One in 75 men and one in 150 women are diagnosed with oral cancer in their lifetime. Due to the sensitive nature of the structures and organs in the head and neck area, radiologists need to take extreme care while treating them.
Before radiotherapy is administered, a detailed map needs to be prepared with the areas to be treated and the areas to be avoided. This is known as segmentation. This segmented map is fed into the radiography machine, which will then target cancer cells without harming healthy cells.
In the case of cancer of the head or neck region, this is a painstaking job for the radiologists as it involves very sensitive organs. It takes around four hours for the radiologists to create a segmented map for this area. DeepMind, through its algorithms, is aiming to reduce the time required for generating the segmented maps, from four to one hour. This will significantly free up the radiologist’s time. More importantly, this segmentation algorithm can be utilised for other parts of the body.
To summarise, AlphaGo successfully beat the 18-time world Go champion, Lee Seedol, four times in a best-of-five tournament in 2016. In 2017, it even beat a team of the world’s best players. It uses a combination of DNN and DQN as a policy network for coming up with the next best move, and one DNN as a value network to evaluate the outcome of the game. Monte Carlo tree search is used along with both the policy and value networks to reduce the width and depth of the search – they are used to improve the evaluation function. The ultimate aim of this algorithm is not to solve board games but to invent an Artificial General Intelligence algorithm. AlphaGo is undoubtedly a big step ahead in that direction.
Of course, there have been other effects. As the news of AlphaGo Vs Lee Seedol became viral, the demand for Go boards jumped tenfold. Many stores reported instances of Go boards going out of stock, and it became challenging to purchase a Go board.
Fortunately, I just found one and ordered it for myself and my kid. Are you planning to buy the board and learn Go?
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Sentiment Analysis: What is it and Why Does it Matter?
Sentiment Analysis, also known as Opinion Mining, refers to the techniques and processes that help organisations retrieve information about how their customer-base is reacting to a particular product or service.
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In essence, Sentiment Analysis is the analysis of the feelings (i.e. emotions, attitudes, opinions, thoughts, etc.) behind the words by making use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools. If you’re not aware of what NLP tools do – it’s pretty much all in the name. Natural Language Processing essentially aims to understand and create a natural language by using essential tools and techniques.
Sentiment Analysis also uses Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning to help organisations look far beyond just the number of likes/shares/comments they get on an ad campaign, blog post, released product, or anything of that nature. In this article, we’ll be talking about Sentiment Analysis in great depth. From talking about the methods and tools of Sentiment Analysis to discussing why is it so extensively used – we’ve got it all covered!
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Sentiment Analysis: The Math Behind It
Simply reading a post will let you identify whether the author had a positive stance or a negative stance on the topic – but that’s if you’re well versed in the language. However, a computer has no concept of naturally spoken language – so, we need to break down this problem into mathematics (the language of a computer). It cannot simply deduce whether something contains joy, frustration, anger, or otherwise – without any context of what those words mean.
Sentiment Analysis solves this problem by using Natural Language Processing. Basically, it recognizes the necessary keywords and phrases within a document, which eventually help the algorithm to classify the emotional state of the document.
Data Scientists and programmers write applications which feeds the documents into the algorithm and stores the results in a way which is useful for clients to use and understand.
Keyword spotting is one of the simplest technique and leveraged widely by Sentiment Analysis algorithms. The fed Input document is thoroughly scanned for the obvious positive and negative words like “sad”, “happy”, “disappoint”, “great”, “satisfied”, and such.
There are a number of Sentiment Analysis algorithms, and each has different libraries of words and phrases which they score as positive, negative, and neutral. These libraries are often called the “bag of words” by many algorithms.
Although this technique looks perfect on the surface, it has some definite shortcomings. Consider the text, “The service was horrible, but the ambiance was awesome!” Now, this sentiment is more complex than a basic algorithm can take into account – it contains both positive and negative emotions. For such cases, more advanced algorithms were devised which break the sentence on encountering the word “but” (or any contrastive conjunction). So, the result becomes “The service was horrible” AND “But the ambiance was awesome.”
This sentence will now generate two or more scores (depending on the number of emotions present in the statement). These individual scores are consolidated to find out the overall score of a piece. In practice, this technique is known as Binary Sentiment Analysis.
No Machine Learning algorithm can achieve a perfect accuracy of 100%, and this is no different. Due to the complexity of our natural language, most of the sentiment analysis algorithms are only 80% accurate, at best.
Sentiment Analysis: Algorithms and Tools
The above graphic will give you a fair idea of the classification of Sentiment Analysis algorithms. Essentially, there are two types of Machine Learning algorithms:
ML-based
You’re aware of the basic workings of any Machine Learning algorithms. The same route by followed in ML-based sentiment analysis algorithms as well. These algorithms require you to create a model by training the classifier with a set of example. This ideally means that you must gather a dataset with relevant examples for positive, neutral, and negative classes, extract these features from the examples and then train your algorithm based on these examples. These algorithms are essentially used for computing the polarity of a document,
Lexicon-based
As the name suggests, these techniques use dictionaries of words. Each word is annotated with its emotional polarity and sentiment strength. This dictionary is then matched with the document to calculate its overall polarity score of the document. These techniques usually give high precision but low recall.
There is no “best” choice out of the two, your choice of method should depend solely on the problem at hand. Lexical algorithms can achieve near-perfect results, but, they require using a lexicon – something that’s not always available in all the languages. On the other hand, ML-based algorithms also deliver good results, but, they require extensive training on labeled data.
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Most Used Sentiment Analysis Tools
There are many Sentiment Analysis and tracking tools available for you to use. We’ll look at five such tools that find extensive use the industry today:
PeopleBrowsr
PeopleBrowsr helps you find all the mentions of your industry, brand, and competitors and analyse the sentiments. It allows you to compare the number of mentions your brand had before, during, and after any ad campaigns.
Meltwater
Meltwater is a social media listening tool that does everything from tracking impact and sentiment analysis in real-time to understanding the competitor’s footprints. Organisations like Sodexo, TataCliq, HCL, NIIT, and many others use Meltwater to improve their online presence and impact.
Google Analytics
Google Analytics helps organisations discover which channels are influencing their subscribers and customers. It helps them create reports and annotation that keeps records of all the marketing campaigns and online behaviors.
HootSuite
The free version of HootSuite allows the organisations to manage and measure their presence on social networks. $5.99/month will make you a premium customer that’ll entitle you to use advanced analytics features.
Social Mention
Socialmention is a very useful tool that allows brands to track mentions for specific keywords in blogs, microblogs, videos, bookmarks, events, comments, news, hashtags, and even audios. It also indicates if mentions are positive, negative, or neutral.
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Sentiment Analysis: Why should it be used?
With everything shifting online, Brands have started giving utmost importance to Sentiment Analysis. Honestly, it’s their only gateway to thoroughly understanding their customer-base, including their expectations from the brand. Social Media listening can help organisations from any domain understand the grievances and concerns of their customers – which eventually helps the organisations scale up their services. Sentiment Analysis helps brands tackle the exact problems or concerns of their customers.
According to some researchers, Sentiment Analysis of Twitter data can help in the prediction of stock market movements. Researchs show that news articles and social media can hugely influence the stock market. News with overall positive sentiment has been observed to relate to a large increase in price albeit for a short period of time. On the other hand, negative news is seen to be linked to a decrease in price – but with more prolonged effects.
Ideally, sentiment analysis can be put to use by any brand looking to:
Target specific individuals to improve their services.
Track customer sentiment and emotions over time.
Determine which customer segment feels more strongly about your brand.
Track the changes in user behavior corresponding to the changes in your product.
Find out your key promoters and detractors.
Clearly, sentiment analysis gives an organisation the much-needed insights on their customers. Organisations can now adjust their marketing strategies depending on how the customers are responding to it. Sentiment Analysis also helps organisations measure the ROI of their marketing campaigns and improve their customer service. Since sentiment analysis gives the organisations a sneak peek into their customer’s emotions, they can be aware of any crisis that’s to come well in time – and manage it accordingly.
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In Conclusion…
More or less every major brand these days relies heavily on social media listening to improve the overall customer experience. If you’re one of the interested souls and want to explore this topic in further depth, we recommend you go through the various kinds of algorithms (the ones we displayed in a graphic earlier) and implementations of Sentiment Analysis in more detail.
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Read More21 Feb'18