Introduction to Guesstimates
There is a famous Akbar Birbal story that many of you might have heard. One day Emperor Akbar and his minister Birbal were taking a stroll through the palace gardens. Suddenly a crow started cawing. Observing this, Akbar turned to Birbal and asked, "How many crows do you think there are in my kingdom?". Birbal thought for a few moments and then said, "Your majesty, there are 95,603 crows in the Kingdom."
Surprised by his quick response, Akbar tested him further and asked, "What if you are wrong?". Birbal replied just as swiftly as before, "Your Majesty if that is the case, I'd gladly accept any punishment you deem fit." knowing full well that there was no way anyone could accurately count the number of crows in the kingdom.
While Birbal might have gotten away with this approach, you will not. Recruiters today look for much more than the random number that Birbal threw at Akbar. So let’s get a deeper understanding of what guesstimates are and what is the right approach to solving them.
So, without any further delay, let’s learn more about guesstimates and their what, why and where from Soumya:
That sure was informative. You learnt the what, why and where of the guesstimates in the video. Let’s try to revise that:
What
The term 'Guesstimate' is formed by the combination of two words: 'Guess' and 'Estimate', as explained earlier. Hence, it essentially refers to the right blend of Guessing + Estimation to reach a marginally correct answer to a question posed. You use existing data you already know and using some basic mathematical skills, you solve such questions. Let’s look at some common examples mentioned by Soumya in the video:
- What is the number of balls you can fit in an aeroplane?
- How many marriages take place in India in a year?
- How many fries are consumed in an hour at a McDonald's outlet?
- How many cigarettes are sold in Mumbai in a day?
And there are many more such questions.
Where
A guesstimate is a very common form of skill-testing these days. Such questions can be asked in a number of situations. Let’s look at a few of those below
● Interviews
Interviews are the most common instance where guesstimate questions can be asked. Consulting firms, especially, give immense importance to case studies and guesstimates as tools to help judge your problem-solving skills.
● Jobs
Let’s say you are working as an event manager for a concert, which is to be attended by 20,000 people. But at the ninth hour, there is a blockade at one part of the city and the metro trains and locals are also closed. You might have to guesstimate on the spot, the number of people who will not be able to attend the event now and, thus, give a rough estimate to the vendors who are in charge of food stalls. This information will help the food vendors to decide the amount of raw material they require for the food accordingly, else a lot of food might go waste in anticipation of the original number of attendees, and this might not go down well with the various stakeholders.
● Competitions
If you have attended any management competition, you must be aware of the type of questions asked at such events. One of them most certainly will always be a guesstimate, especially if you are participating in a product management competition.
Hence, it is crucial to have a basic idea about how to solve these guesstimates.
Why
You have now learnt the importance of guesstimates and the skills it aims to test. Always remember that while solving a guesstimate, getting the correct answer is not the objective. What matters most is the process used or the approach taken to reach the answer. A guesstimate judges how well you are able to solve a problem given to you using existing resources and your knowledge in addition to understanding your ability to communicate your ideas simultaneously.
The next segment will highlight the different types of guesstimates and related examples.
Let’s go!
