Validating the Hypothesis in Problem Solving

Now that you have formulated your hypothesis, the next logical step is to validate the same. A hypothesis, however compelling it may sound, is merely a guess unless proven otherwise. In order to do the same, you need to back it with data. 

In this video, you will learn the issue tree framework to drill down your hypothesis and validate its accuracy:

In this video, you learnt that when scientists write their hypotheses, they use experiments to elaborate on them and test them. Similarly, when consultants, strategy professionals, and business professionals formulate hypotheses, they use the issue tree to elaborate on them and test them. We then narrowed down our focus on issue trees.

As you can see in the image provided above, an issue tree lays out a set of logical conditions and sub-conditions which are nothing but more detailed and specific issues, which if proved correct, prove the hypothesis correct.

If you look at the structure of an issue tree, you will easily understand why it is named so. It has a tree-like structure, where the conditions and sub-conditions are like the branches and sub-branches. For a hypothesis to be true, at least one of the two conditions and the sub-conditions associated with it must be true. In the next segment, we will look at a real-life example of the application of issue trees. 

You learnt how to use issue trees to test your hypotheses. With the help of an issue tree, we were able to validate the hypothesis that the profits declined because the revenues have declined.

Further, you learnt about two variants of issue trees. These variants have been explained in the table provided below. 
 

You also went through detailed examples explaining the application of both these variants of issue trees. In the next segment, you will learn about a few good practices that you must keep in mind while framing your hypotheses.

Additional Resources:

• The Definitive Guide to Issue Trees